Unless they are actually in hospital, most people don’t like talking about their ailments, especially when they are trying to convince others that they are strong and healthy. So, although it is tempting, going up to manufacturers exhibiting at Integrated Systems Europe and asking them how 2009 was for them isn’t going to make for a long conversation. But someone needs to at least remember the pain.
This time last year economic output was falling right across EMEA and governments were stepping in to try and save entire nations’ financial systems from meltdown. That didn’t stop most of the exhibitors I talked to at ISE 2009 from suggesting that (a) the a-v industry was so diverse it wasn’t going to be affected (b) if people didn’t buy their new products they’d become uncompetitive, and (c) their brand or market share was so strong they’d gain from a declining market as weaker competitors dropped out.
We now know that business display sales in EMEA fell by 25-30 per cent by value last year and that even the highest-tech systems companies were admitting that ‘flat was the new growth’ by the end of the year.
However, 2010 is going to be different, isn’t it?
In some EMEA regions recession has now officially ended and the economies are growing again, ideal conditions in which the a-v sector can resume the double-digit growth it has come to regard as its right.
Well, that’s the official line. The reality is that there is a long way to go before the market returns to ‘normal’. The French, German, Scandinavian and Benelux economies may have turned the corner, but recovery in the UK is still extremely fragile and conditions in Southern and Eastern Europe are still dire. Greece isn’t the only EC member with a budget crisis (although it is probably the only one that’s admitting it) and the non-Euro countries to the east have severe credit problems.
Taken as a whole, that means recovery will at best be patchy. Most business sectors are still reluctant to spend, partly because it is still hard for them to find credit, and government-funded initiatives are likely to come under pressure as nations seek to reduce their deficits.
So an hourly reality check is going to be in order when I’m tramping the ISE halls this week. I don’t expect all the sales folk on the floor at ISE to be anything but optimistic – after all, that’s what they are paid to do – but it will be interesting to try and discover what a-v suppliers have learned during the last year and how they expect to grow their businesses in the future. I suspect they will be publicly bullish, but privately cautious.
